NFC Mobile Payments Forecast Update: 2003-2017

Strategy Analytics has marginally lowered its outlook for NFC-based mobile payments to reflect the slow pace at which operators are pushing NFC payments service, limited NFC payment deployments by OEMs, and the continued slow adoption of contactless payments by retailers. Strategy Analytics estimates 115 m NFC handset owners will spend just over $48 B using their NFC phones by 2017, down from 158 m and $53 B in our previous forecast. Meanwhile, alternative methods of making in-store mobile payments through solutions such as LevelUp and Square Wallet have gained pockets of traction, and are fragmenting the mobile payment sector. The prospect of both Apple and PayPal launching alternative mobile payment solutions based on Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE), not NFC, adds further uncertainty to the role of NFC in supporting in-store mobile payments.