OPPORTUNITIES IN THE SOLAR MARKET FOR CRYSTALLINE AND THIN FILM SOLAR CELLS

Chapter 1 Introduction 1-1

Chapter 2 Solar Cell Technology 2-1

2.1 Introduction 2.1
2.2 Generations of development 2-2
2.2.1 First Generation 2-2
2.2.2 Second Generation 2-2
2.2.3 Third Generation 2-3
2.3 History 2-11
2.4 Theory of Operation 2-12
2.4.1 Simple explanation 2-12
2.4.2 Photogeneration of charge carriers 2-13
2.4.3 Charge carrier separation 2-14
2.4.4 The p-n junction 2-14
2.4.5 Connection to an external load 2-15
2.4.6 Equivalent circuit of a solar cell 2-15
2.5 Solar cell efficiency factors 2-16
2.5.1 Maximum-power point 2-16
2.5.2 Energy conversion efficiency 2-16
2.5.3 Fill factor 2-17
2.5.4 Quantum efficiency 2-17
2.5.5 Comparison of energy conversion efficiencies 2-17
2.5.5.1 Peak watt (or Watt peak) 2-18
2.5.5.2 Solar cells and energy payback 2-20
2.6 Light-absorbing materials 2-20
2.6.1 Bulk 2-21
2.6.1.1 Silicon 2-21
2.6.2 Thin films 2-22
2.6.2.1 CdTe 2-22
2.6.2.2 CIGS 2-23
2.6.2.3 CIS 2-24
2.6.2.4 Gallium arsenide (GaAs) multijunction 2-24
2.6.2.5 Light absorbing dyes 2-25
2.6.2.6 Organic/polymer solar cells 2-28
2.6.2.7 Silicon Thin Films 2-30
2.6.3 Nanocrystalline solar cells 2-33
2.7 Concentrating photovoltaics (CPV) 2-34
2.7.1 Introduction 2-34
2.7.2 Commercial reflectors 2-39
2.8 Overview of research on materials and devices 2-45
2.8.1 Silicon processing 2-46
2.8.2 Thin-film processing 2-49
2.8.3 Polymer processing 2-50
2.8.4 Nanoparticle processing 2-50
2.8.5 Transparent conductors 2-52

Chapter 3 Solar Cell Manufacturing 3-1

3.1 Introduction 3-1
3.2 How Solar Cells Are Made 3-1
3.2.1 Silicon Solar Cell 3-4
3.2.2 Etching And Texturing 3-9
3.2.3 Diffusion And Edge Isolation 3-9
3.2.4 Anti-Reflection Coating 3-10
3.2.5 Metallization 3-10

Chapter 4 Thin Film Technology 4-1

4.1 Introduction 4-1
4.2 Silicon Deposition Technologies 4-4
4.2.1 Amorphous Silicon Deposition 4-4
4.2.2 Microcrystalline Silicon Deposition 4-7
4.3 Compound Semiconductor Deposition Technologies 4-10
4.3.1 Introduction 4-10
4.3.2 CdTe – Cadmium Telluride 4-18
4.3.3 CIGS - Copper Indium Gallium Selenide 4-25
4.3.4 GaAs – Gallium Arsenide 4-33

Chapter 5 Solar Markets 5-1

5.1 Introduction 5-1
5.2 Key Growth Drivers 5-3
5.2.1 Government Incentives 5-3
5.2.2 Fossil Fuel Supply Constraints 5-4
5.2.3 Growing Awareness Of The Advantages Of Solar Power 5-4
5.2.4 Advances In Technologies 5-5
5.2.5 Large Market Among Underserved Populations 5-6
5.3 Challenges Facing The Solar Power Industry 5-7
5.4 Cost Of A Photovoltaic System 5-8
5.5 Operating Metrics Of A Photovoltaic System 5-10
5.6 Types Of PV System 5-11
5.6.1 Grid Connected Sector 5-11
5.6.2 Off-Grid Sector 5-13
5.6.3 Market Development 5-14
5.7 Market Analysis 5-15
5.7.1 Solar Cell Market 5-15
5.7.2 Polysilicon Solar Cell Market 5-47
5.7.3 Thin Film Solar Cell Market 5-53
5.7.3.1 Driving Forces 5-53
5.7.3.2 Competing Technologies 5-57
5.7.3.3 Third-Generation Technologies 5-63
5.7.4 Thin Film Solar Cell Equipment Market 5-65
5.7.5 Substrates 5-86
5.7.6 Manufacturing Costs 5-90
5.8 Disruptive Technologies 5-93

List of Figures

2.1 Light Absorption Through Layers In A Multijunction Cell 2-4
2.2 Triple Junction a-Si/a-SiGe/a-SiGe Cell Structure 2-6
2.3 A Two-Junction Amorphous-Silicon Solar Cell 2-7
2.4 Solar Cell Technology Roadmap 2-9
2.5 Best Research-Cell Efficiencies 2-19
2.6 Dye Sensitized Solar Cell Schematic 2-27
2.7 Bulk Heterojunction Solar Cell 2-29
2.8 Schematic Of Sliver Cell 2-48
3.1 Diagram Of Solar Cell 3-2
3.2 Cross Section Of A Solar Cell Under Illumination 3.3
3.3 Polysilicon Manufacturing And Supply Chain 3-8
4.1 Sharp’s Triple-Junction Solar Cell 4-7
4.2 Factory Flow For 20 MW/Year CGS Facility 4-9
4.3 Schematic Of CdTe And CIGS Device Structures 4-15
4.4 CdTe Thin Film Deposition By VTD 4-21
4.5 CdTe Thin Film Deposition By Close Space Sublimation (CSS) Schematic 4-22
4.6 CdTe Thin Film Deposition By VTD2 4-24
4.7 CIGS Deposition System By Evaporation 4-27
4.8 Cross-Sectional Schematic Diagram Of The InGaP/InGaAs/Ge ATJ Cell 4-35
5.1 Commercial System Cost Per Watt 5-9
5.2 Evolution Of Global Annual Installations 5-18
5.3 Evolution Of Global Cumulative Installed Capacity 5-19
5.4 Solar Vendor Market Shares – 2000 5-20
5.5 Solar Vendor Market Shares – 2001 5-21
5.6 Solar Vendor Market Shares – 2002 5-22
5.7 Solar Vendor Market Shares – 2003 5-23
5.8 Solar Vendor Market Shares – 2004 5-24
5.9 Solar Vendor Market Shares – 2005 5-25
5.10 Solar Vendor Market Shares – 2006 5-26
5.11 Solar Vendor Market Shares – 2007 5-27
5.12 Solar Vendor Market Shares – 2008 5-28
5.13 Solar Vendor Market Shares – 2009 5-29
5.14 Solar Vendor Market Shares – 2010 5-30
5.15 Solar Vendor Market Shares – 2011 5-31
5.16 Solar Vendor Market Shares – 2012 5-32
5.17 Solar Vendor Market Shares – 2013 5-33
5.18 Solar Vendor Market Shares – 2014 5-34
5.19 Solar Cell Production by Region 5-38
5.20 Solar Cell Forecast 5-39
5.21 Solar Cell Production By Type 5-40
5.22 Thin Film Solar Cell Production By Type 5-42
5.23 Polysilicon Production And Consumption (MT) 5-52
5.24 Best Research-Cell Efficiencies 5-58
5.25 Schematic Diagrams Of Thin-Film CdTe, CIGS, and a-Si Thin Film PV Devices 5-59
5.26 Thin Film Solar Cell Power As A Percentage Of Total Solar Power 5-64
5-27 Schematic Thin-Film Roll-To-Roll Equipment 5-66
5.28 Market Forecast for Solar Cell Production Equipment 5-83
5.29 Market Shares for Solar Cell Production Equipment 5-84

List of Tables

3.1 Polysilicon Capacity Forecast 3-6
4.1 Thin Film CIGS Solar Cells Efficiencies 4-12
4.2 Highest Efficiencies PV Modules 4-14
5.1 States With Grid Parity 5-16
5.2 Top 10 Solar Manufacturers By Shipments 5-21
5.3 Market Share Of Solar Cells By Technology 5-41
5.4 Polysilicon Production Capacities By Company 5-48
5.5 Polysilicon Supply/Demand Forecast 5-51
5.6 Thin Film Solar Cell Producers 5-55
5.7 Cost Comparison Of Thin Film Technologies 5-62
5.8 Affect of Substrate Material On CIGS Solar Efficiency 5-89
5.9 Cost of Ownership Report 5-91