2013/05/27 Ultra-HD TV will make good use of new fibre networks – depending on television size.

Investors in new fibre networks now consider revenue from connected TV as an essential component of their investment cases. The trend is accompanied by developments in the TV industry, with new standards in high-definition (HD) TV attracting publicity. This article, jointly written by Analysys Mason and the University of Salford, studies the evolution of the bandwidth demands of a connected-TV household and the implications for investment decisions in networks.

As manufacturers use the latest standards to sell new products and consumers expect the most up-to-date technology, the march towards higher-definition video seems relentless. Following the success of 720 and 1080 ('full HD') standards, two new standards for ultra-HD (UHD) TV are being heralded:

• 4K, which delivers video at a resolution of 3840×2160 pixels (about four times the resolution of full HD) and is likely to be accompanied by an increase in frame rate, from 25fps to 60fps
• 8K, which delivers video at a resolution of 7680×4380 pixels (about 16 times the resolution of full HD) and is expected to increase the frame rate even further, to 120fps.

Several manufacturers, including LG, Samsung and Sony, either already have UHD TVs on sale or are due to release them. At the moment, the availability of 4K content is limited and the primary method of delivery is still to be defined (that is, through the development of a physical disc medium and/or via the Internet). The Sony TVs come with a selection of 4K videos pre-loaded on to a separate video player, which can be updated via an Internet connection – but we expect such an update to take a long time on a standard broadband connection. Therefore, as this type of TV set becomes more prevalent, we also expect an increase in demand for more-instant delivery of UHD programming, akin to the delivery of HD content to connected TVs today.

We have considered the impact of these developments in TV definition standards on telecoms networks. Given the required data rate of UHD standards, including implementation of the latest video compression techniques (as well as some assumptions on the take-up of new standards), we have created an indicative forecast of the peak demand of a connected-TV household in the short-to-medium, medium-to-long, and long-to-very-long term (see Figure 1).

Figure 1: Indicative forecast of peak demand from an average-sized connected-TV household [Source: Analysys Mason, University of Salford, 2013]

This simple analysis is dependent on the availability of UHD TV technologies, as well as the take-up of those technologies by both content producers and consumers. However, the analysis provides some interesting implications for network operators and policy makers investing in superfast broadband networks.

• Demand from 4K UHD TV does not necessarily require fibre to the home (FTTH). Enhanced copper networks – supported by fibre to the cabinet (FTTC) along with vectoring technology – are expected to be able to provide about 100Mbps to the home. If a second copper pair is available, the use of bonding and phantom mode could raise this to 200–300Mbps.
• FTTH will be well suited to support the delivery of 8K UHD programming. Advances in pixel resolution and frame rate will mean that 8K UHD traffic is likely to outstrip the expected capabilities of copper networks. FTTH networks are able to provide connections of 1Gbps and more, and so will be better suited to delivering such services.
• Take-up of more-advanced UHD TV may be limited by non-technological constraints. There is a limit to the angular resolution that the human eye can process, beyond which there is no perceptible advantage to greater TV resolution. In order to make the increased detail visible, a larger screen is needed. The 4K sets currently available all have screen sizes of more than 80 inches; 8K TVs may be even bigger. Eventually the required screen size may become so great as to become an obstacle to take-up, whether because of the physical size of rooms, or the cost of super-sized TVs.
• FTTH networks may be useful for large households, or for those with a number of connected TVs (our analysis above assumes one set using the latest standard, with additional sets using older standards). In such cases, fibre-on-demand products may become popular, such as those discussed in our recent Comment, Openreach's FTTP on demand trial highlights different approaches to on-demand fibre.
• Backhaul and core capacity, along with multicast technology, will continue to be essential to ensure that sufficient bandwidth can be delivered to the access network at peak times.

So, is UHD TV the 'killer app' that next-generation broadband networks have been waiting for? Forecast household demand certainly supports investment in new fibre technologies of some sort. Investors in FTTC technologies are likely to be vindicated in the medium term, as delivery of 4K UHD TV will make good use of their networks. FTTH investors are already playing a long game, but with widespread take-up of 8K UHD TV services likely to be required to fully exploit these networks, vindication of their decision could be some way off. In future, perhaps every home will have a 100-inch screen, but at this stage it looks like a long time before FTTH investors can fully capitalise on their connection speed advantage.

Source: Analysys Mason